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The Future of the Dotcom Industry
by Sacha Cohen What a year it's been. At this time last year, dotcom millionaires were still making headlines, stock prices had skyrocketed and the Internet industry seemed unstoppable. Oh how things can change in 12 months! These days, the news is chockablock with layoffs, closings and stories of young dotcommers collecting unemployment and heading to Bermuda. So what will 2001 bring? Although they are not psychic, we did speak to several industry pundits to see what they think the coming year will bring. Here's what they have to say about the coming months. Monster.com: The end of 2000 was pretty grim for the dotcom sector as a whole. Do you think things will get worse before they get better? Aliza Sherman, Founder of WebGrrls: I wish I were a fortune-teller, because anyone who can accurately predict the future in this dotcom meltdown would be pretty rich. I do think that two main things have to happen before things get better in the dotcom sector: 1. A critical mass has to be reached where the general population -- not those of us in the industry -- is using the Internet as their main means of purchasing everyday goods and services. 2. The companies that are out there pushing goods and services online should no longer be grand experiments that over-anticipate the market's demand and overspend by millions with inflated salaries, luxury offices and expensive, unsuccessful advertising campaigns. Rather than being scrappy pioneers with tightened belts and a long-term plan, the method for dotcom business has, too often, been excess, lack of focus, failure to produce real value and the spaghetti theory -- if it sticks, then maybe it will be a company. But that is the nature of industry progress on steroids, in other words, the Internet. Douglas Rushkoff, Author of Coercion: Why We Listen to What "They" Say: It depends on what you mean by "worse" and "better." The fact that a huge number of investment schemes using the word Internet in their business plans were exposed isn't really a bad thing, is it? The only sad part is that people involved in genuine ventures are having a tougher time raising money. But Internet businesses don't really need Nasdaq-size investments until they're ripe and real. If people dedicated to networking learn to think of their companies the same way anyone else does -- as something that has to be able to sustain itself based on something other than an investment pyramid -- it's all good. I think the Internet will also become a more vital place as dotcom schemers move on to greener pastures. Esther Dyson, Chairman of EDventure Holdings: I see what you describe, but I see that as positive. A lot of these companies did not have much reason to exist even though the people within them were often very capable. So it's a good thing for them to be shutting down despite the short-term pain. I hope the employees will mostly move to places where they can actually be productive. Short-term, the market simply wasn't doing its job; it was sending people the wrong signals by promising them $500,000, $5 million or $50 million for a couple of years' work. Long-term, uncomfortable as it is, the market is now doing its work. So yes, I see more shutdowns, consolidations and short-term pain. But I see a much healthier economy at the end of it. Cures are often more painful than the disease, but they make you healthy. Monster.com: What do you think about the outlook for employment in the Internet space? Dyson: The employment outlook for people with Internet expertise is good, but many of the employers will be traditional companies rather than hot dotcoms. And salaries will reflect genuine value-added rather than valuations! Sherman: There definitely is not a lack of jobs for good programmers and seasoned businesspeople, but there has been a glitch in the more creative positions like graphics, writing and Web video production. Those with highly specialized skills should make sure their skills haven't become obsolete. In a way, those with a wide range of skills -- digital Renaissance men and women -- will have more fluid roles in transforming companies. Those with a freelancer's or free agent's mentality will have the most flexibility and no trouble moving from company to company, gaining new skills along the way. Monster.com: Let's talk about the outcome of the so-called dotcom shakeout. What do you think 2001 has in store? Continued closings, stocks plummeting, layoffs, consolidation? Or is your outlook more positive? Rushkoff: I think 2001 will be tricky. I'm not a forecaster, so don't take what I say too seriously. I think the bubble had less to do with the Internet than it did pre-millennial speculation. Everyone was leaning forward to the future, because 2000 was on the horizon. Then when 2000 came, people stopped thinking so much about the future. We became presentists. Because we cared about the present, we spent less energy and money on speculation. We even grew distasteful of thinking about the future, thus Bush. But this is largely a reaction to a formerly inflated dedication to the economic future. I think the speculative economy will slowly be replaced by the real economy over the next couple of years. Sherman: Until someone, anyone, figures it out and actually finds sustainable business models on the Internet, companies that are popping up may have very short shelf lives. But as long as the new entrepreneurs realize they are unwittingly part of some grand experiment and they are the guinea pigs who may or may not survive the industry experimentation lab, then they'll have a contingency plan or the next big idea. There is no business there yet, and those working in the industry should have no illusions or false hopes that they are going to be the ones who will survive. What they do need to have are savvy business skills, thick skins and a lot of common sense.
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